Monday, May 20, 2019


The law of unintended consequences, often cited but rarely defined, is that actions of people, and especially of governments, always have effects that are unanticipated or "unintended."  The concept of unintended consequences is one of the building blocks of economics.  Adam Smith's "invisible hand," the most famous metaphor in social science, is an example of a positive unintended consequence.  Smith maintained that each individual, seeking only his own gain, "is led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention," that end being the public interest.  "It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, or the baker, that we expect our dinner," Smith wrote, "but from regard to their own self interest."  In 1692 John Locke, the English philosopher and a forerunner of modern economists, urged the defeat of a parliamentary bill designed to cut the maximum permissible rate of interest from 6 percent to 4 percent.  Locke argued that instead of benefiting borrowers, as intended, it would hurt them. People would find ways to circumvent the law, with the costs of circumvention borne by borrowers.  To the extent the law was obeyed, Locke concluded, the chief results would be less available credit and a redistribution of income away from "widows, orphans and all those who have their estates in money."  The first and most complete analysis of the concept of unintended consequences was done in 1936 by the American sociologist Robert K. Merton.  In an influential article titled "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action," Merton identified five sources of unanticipated consequences.  The first two, and the most pervasive, were ignorance and error.  Merton labeled the third source the "imperious immediacy of interest."  By that he was referring to instances in which an individual wants the intended consequence of an action so much that he purposefully chooses to ignore any unintended effects.  (That type of willful ignorance is very different from true ignorance.)  A nation, for example, might ban abortion on moral grounds even though children born as a result of the policy may be unwanted and likely to be more dependent on the state.  The unwanted children are an unintended consequence of banning abortions, but not an unforeseen one.  "Basic values" was Merton's fourth example.  The Protestant ethic of hard work and asceticism, he wrote, "paradoxically leads to its own decline through the accumulation of wealth and possessions."  His final case was the "self-defeating prediction."  Here he was referring to the instances when the public prediction of a social development proves false precisely because the prediction changes the course of history.  For example, the warnings earlier in this century that population growth would lead to mass starvation helped spur scientific breakthroughs in agricultural productivity that have since made it unlikely that the gloomy prophecy will come true.  Merton later developed the flip side of this idea, coining the phrase "the self-fulfilling prophecy."  In a footnote to the 1936 article, he vowed to write a book devoted to the history and analysis of unanticipated consequences.  By 1991, Merton, age eighty, had produced six hundred pages of manuscript but still not completed the work.  Social Security has helped alleviate poverty among senior citizens.  Many economists argue, however, that it has carried a cost that goes beyond the payroll taxes levied on workers and employers.  Martin Feldstein and others maintain that today's workers save less for their old age because they know they will receive Social Security checks when they retire.  If Feldstein and the others are correct, it means that less savings are available, less investment takes place, and the economy and wages grow more slowly than they would without Social Security.  The law of unintended consequences is at work always and everywhere.  In 1968, for instance, Vermont outlawed roadside billboards and large signs in order to protect the state's pastoral vistas.  One unintended consequence was the appearance of large, bizarre "sculptures" adjacent to businesses.  An auto dealer commissioned a twelve-foot, sixteen-ton gorilla, clutching a real Volkswagen Beetle.  A carpet store is marked by a nineteen-foot genie holding aloft a rolled carpet as he emerges from a smoking teapot.  Other sculptures include a horse, a rooster, and a squirrel in red suspenders.  Rob Norton  https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/540/handouts/french/unintconseq.html

Nothing has just one consequence.  Consequences fan out in all directions over time.  Life is like playing piano with oven mitts on.  You go to hit one key and others get hit in the process.  https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/ambigamy/201612/the-laws-unintended-consequences

In 1890, New Yorker Eugene Schieffelin wanted to look out his window and see the same kind of birds in the sky that Shakespeare had seen.  Inspired by a mention of starlings in Henry VI, Schieffelin released 100 of the non-native birds in Central Park over two years.  (He wasn’t acting alone--he had the support of scientists and the American Acclimatization Society.)  The birds didn’t just survive; they thrived and bred like weeds.  Unfortunately, Schieffelin’s plan worked too well.  Far, far too well.  The starlings multiplied exponentially, spreading across America at an astonishing rate.  Today, we don’t even know how many of them live in the U.S., with official estimates ranging from 45 million to 200 million.  Most, if not all, of them are descended from Schieffelin’s initial 100 birds.  The problem is that as an alien species, the starlings wreak havoc because they were introduced into an ecosystem they were not naturally part of and the local species had (and still have) no defense against them.  https://fs.blog/2018/02/unintended-consequences/ 

Traffic is a mess in Georgetown.  The Washington, D.C. neighborhood didn't want the subway in their area.  Now their penalty is constant congestion.  See also Five Examples of the Law of Unintended Consequences by Mark J. Perry at http://www.aei.org/publication/five-examples-of-the-law-of-unintended-consequences/

Noah's Ark Pudding Asure is a cornucopia of healthy ingredients like dried fruits, legumes and whole grain wheat that are sweetened with sugar and fruit juices and cooked all together in one pot.  This pudding traditionally contains apricots, raisins, currantsfigspine nuts, walnuts, hazelnuts, chickpeas and navy beans to name just a few ingredients.  Some cooks even add chestnuts, lima beans, bulgur wheat and slivers of fresh coconut.  Almost anything goes.  Turkish legend has it that the first version of 'aşure' was made by Noah himself.  After weeks on the ark, the waters began to recede.  As food stocks dwindled, Noah decided to throw bits of everything he had left on the ark into one pot.  What he got was a delicious pudding that kept he and his passengers well-fed until the ark finally rested on Mount Ararat in eastern Turkey.  Some say 'aşure'(aah-shoor-EY) is the oldest dessert in the world.  There is no set recipe for making Noah's ark pudding.  There are hundreds, if not thousands of variations.  Find recipe serving six at https://www.thespruceeats.com/turkish-noahs-ark-pudding-3  See also Noah's Pudding at http://www.umass.edu/gso/rumi/ashura.pdf  As a project, have a group of people bring items of their choice and put everything together.

The Panama Papers are 11.5 million leaked documents that detail financial and attorney–client information for more than 214,488 offshore entities.  The documents, some dating back to the 1970s, were created by, and taken from, Panamanian law firm and corporate service provider Mossack Fonseca, and were leaked in 2015 by an anonymous source.  The documents contain personal financial information about wealthy individuals and public officials that had previously been kept private.  While offshore business entities are legal (see Offshore Magic Circle), reporters found that some of the Mossack Fonseca shell corporations were used for illegal purposes, including fraudtax evasion, and evading international sanctions.  "John Doe", the whistleblower who leaked the documents to German journalist Bastian Obermayer from the newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), remains anonymous, even to the journalists who worked on the investigation.  "My life is in danger", he told them.  In a May 6, 2016, statement, John Doe cited income inequality as the reason for his action, and said he leaked the documents "simply because I understood enough about their contents to realize the scale of the injustices they described".  He added that he had never worked for any government or intelligence agency and expressed willingness to help prosecutors if granted immunity from prosecution after SZ verified that the statement did in fact come from the source for the Panama Papers, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) posted the full document on its website.  SZ asked the ICIJ for help because of the amount of data involved.  Journalists from 107 media organizations in 80 countries analyzed documents detailing the operations of the law firm.  After more than a year of analysis, the first news stories were published on April 3, 2016, along with 150 of the documents themselves.  The project represents an important milestone in the use of data journalism software tools and mobile collaboration.  The documents were dubbed the Panama Papers because of the country they were leaked from; however, the Panamanian government expressed strong objections to the name over concerns that it would tarnish the government's and country's image worldwide, as did other entities in Panama and elsewhere.  This led to an advertising campaign some weeks after the leak, titled "Panama, more than papers".  Some media outlets covering the story have used the name "Mossack Fonseca papers".  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Papers

In one of the most grating pop culture collisions of all time, Canadian joke-popsters Barenaked Ladies wrote the theme song for long-running sitcom The Big Bang Theory, and as a special send-off for the May 16, 2019 series finale, the band unveiled a brand new version of the song.  The new rendition features frontman Ed Robertson performing solo with an acoustic guitar, presenting a slightly more solemn version of the usually peppy tune.  Barenaked Ladies recently performed the new acoustic rendition of The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.  Sarah Murphy  Link to both versions of the song and watch the live performance at   http://exclaim.ca/music/article/barenaked_ladies_recorded_a_new_version_of_the_big_bang_theory_theme_song_for_last_nights_finale

Herman Wouk (pronounced WOKE), the versatile, Pulitzer Prize winning author of such million-selling novels as “The Caine Mutiny” and “The Winds of War” died May 17, 2019 at 103.  Wouk was just 10 days shy of his 104th birthday and was working on a book until the end, said his literary agent Amy Rennert.  Rennert said Wouk died in his sleep at his home in Palm Springs, California, where he settled after spending many years in Washington, D.C.  Among the last of the major writers to emerge after World War II and first to bring Jewish stories to a general audience, he had a long, unpredictable career that included gag writing for radio star Fred Allen, historical fiction and a musical co-written with Jimmy Buffett.  He won the Pulitzer in 1952 for “The Caine Mutiny,” the classic Navy drama that made the unstable Captain Queeg, with the metal balls he rolls in his hand and his talk of stolen strawberries, a symbol of authority gone mad.  A film adaptation, starring Humphrey Bogart, came out in 1954 and Wouk turned the courtroom scene into the play “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial.”  Other highlights included “Don’t Stop the Carnival,” which Wouk and Buffett adapted into a musical, and his two-part World War II epic, “The Winds of War” and “War and Remembrance,” both of which Wouk himself adapted for a 1983, Emmy Award-winning TV miniseries starring Robert Mitchum.  “The Winds of War” received some of the highest ratings in TV history and Wouk’s involvement covered everything from the script to commercial sponsors.  Hillel Italie

http://librariansmuse.blogspot.com  Issue 2100  May 20, 2019

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